Final Word from Wednesday, July 19, 2006





Richard Hokenson, a demographer, told the Czech CFA Society that 70% of everything can be explained by demographics. How would he explain the sudden drop in traffic fatalities? He might conclude that before the point system was introduced, Czechs were statistically deviant because of their willingness to risk lives by driving fast and furious. He might find that the bell curve of traffic speeds - with Trabants on one end and Mercedes on the other - has been flattened, with everyone now puttering about like frightened old grannies. He might forecast that the right side of the curve will expand along socioeconomic lines, with the Mercedes drivers first figuring out how to beat the new system. He might also look at why it took lawmakers and the police so long to get serious about cleaning up the roads. But no, that falls into the 30% of events that can't be explained by demographic science.[Czech Republic highway demography Czech Chartered Financial Analyst Society]

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