Election prediction

It's quite risky to try to forecast the parliamentary election results with three months still to go, but it's useful for identifying the trends. So, in a nutshell, here's how it might play out. ODS will be the winner on Oct. 9-10, but it'll be a squeaker. The party of Mirek Topolánek will benefit from more personal attacks on both the right and the left against ČSSD Chair Jiří Paroubek, Central Bohemian Gov. David Rath and media magnate Jaroslav Soukup. Regardless of whether KDU-ČSL, TOP 09 and the Greens make it into Parliament, Topolánek will be forced into a grand coalition with ČSSD, because he won't stand for being taken hostage by Pavel Bém and his Prague MPs. Paroubek will have to step down as ČSSD chair and will be replaced by either Bohuslav Sobotka or Roman Onderka. This will herald a new era of collaboration - some for the better, mostly for the worse - between ODS and ČSSD. [Czech Republic Social Democrats Civic]