The dems of bad driving
2006-07-19
Richard Hokenson, a demographer, told the Czech CFA Society
that 70% of everything can be explained by demographics. How
would he explain the sudden drop in traffic fatalities? He might
conclude that before the point system was introduced, Czechs
were statistically deviant because of their willingness to risk lives
by driving fast and furious. He might find that the bell curve of
traffic speeds - with Trabants on one end and Mercedes on the
other - has been flattened, with everyone now puttering about
like frightened old grannies. He might forecast that the right
side of the curve will expand along socioeconomic lines, with the
Mercedes drivers first figuring out how to beat the new system.
He might also look at why it took lawmakers and the police so
long to get serious about cleaning up the roads. But no, that
falls into the 30% of events that can't be explained by
demographic science.
[Czech Republic highway demography Czech Chartered Financial
Analyst Society]
|